Tuesday, August 23, 2005

But That's Not What the Times Says!

I'm waiting on the mainstream media to report this story in detail...

Remember last spring, when the Army's recruitment efforts fell short for a few months? The media's glee would have made you confuse the New York Times and Air America.

When the Army attempted to explain that enlistments are cyclical and numbers dip at certain times of the year, the media ignored it. All that mattered was the wonderful news that the Army couldn't find enough soldiers. We were warned, in oh-so-solemn tones, that our military was headed for a train wreck.

Now, as the fiscal year nears an end, the Army's numbers look great. Especially in combat units and Iraq, soldiers are re-enlisting at record levels. And you don't hear a whisper about it from the "mainstream media."

Let's look at the numbers, which offer a different picture of patriotism than the editorial pages do.

* Every one of the Army's 10 divisions — its key combat organizations — has exceeded its re-enlistment goal for the year to date. Those with the most intense experience in Iraq have the best rates. The 1st Cavalry Division is at 136 percent of its target, the 3rd Infantry Division at 117 percent.

Among separate combat brigades, the figures are even more startling, with the 2nd Brigade of the 2nd Infantry Division at 178 percent of its goal and the 3rd Brigade of the 4th Mech right behind at 174 percent of its re-enlistment target.

This is unprecedented in wartime. Even in World War II, we needed the draft. Where are the headlines?

* What about first-time enlistment rates, since that was the issue last spring? The Army is running at 108 percent of its needs. Guess not every young American despises his or her country and our president.

* The Army Reserve is a tougher sell, given that it takes men and women away from their families and careers on short notice. Well, Reserve recruitment stands at 102 percent of requirements.

* And then there's the Army National Guard. We've been told for two years that the Guard was in free-fall. Really? Guard recruitment and retention comes out to 106 percent of its requirements as of June 30. (I've even heard a rumor that Al Franken and Tim Robbins signed up — but let's wait for confirmation on that.)
(hat tip: Powerline) Well, if Franken and Robbins sign up, there's one sure way to drive down the numbers.

I don't doubt that our military is stretched thin as a result of deployments. But when the actual numbers of people enlisting are meeting and exceeding recruiting targets, it's time to put away the corresponding myth that America's military won't be able to find enough soldiers in the future.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

To quote transsexual detective Lois Einhorn from "Ace Ventura: Pet Detective", "that's a very entertaining story, but real detectives have to worry about that little thing lawyers call evidence." Maybe the NY Post gives a source for their numbers, but they flat out contradict the Pentagon's. (See http://www.dod.mil/releases/2005/nr20050810-4393.html)

The Army's Active Component met its goal for July, but the Reserves and National Guard were both off by 20%. For the year, the AC is off by 11%; the Reserves 20%, NG 23%.

Seems like either the Pentagon is wrong, or the NYP and "Power Line" are. And while I AM somewhat captivated by the bold electrical graphics at the top of the Power Line webpage, in this instance, I'm going to have to side with the five-sided funny farm.

For more insightful (i.e., less political) commentary on issues of recruiting and retention, check out the good folks at Intel Dump. (Whose founder, coincidentally, is an activated reservist getting ready to deploy to the big sandbox.) See: http://www.intel-dump.com/archives/archive_2005_08_07-2005_08_13.shtml#1123695630

Among other things, learn why increased retention -- while a good, albeit increasingly expensive, thing -- can even be its own double-edged sword, as it takes away the single biggest feeder for the reserves and national guard. (i.e., soldiers leaving active duty.)

There is much more to this story than mere numbers, and that's all the more true when the numbers are apparently made up.

10:11 PM  

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