John Warner... Kingmaker?

The Key Monk has an interesting thought about the filibuster deal. He notes that John Warner was the key GOP member in negotiation compromises. While Warner is a big champion of Senate comity, he's also well-respected by the GOP base and able to take the brickbats that will come his way. Monk notes that Warner's action, and the deal itself, served to increase George Allen's chances for the Presidency. Since both are Senators from Virginia, is it possible that Warner was doing a little Machiavellian maneuvering?

The more I think about the deal, the more I find the scenario plausible. Let's leave Jeb and Dick Cheney out of the analysis, as they've said they're staying out. The deal just about kills one major front-runner on the GOP side, Senator Frist. The conservative base won't trust him, especially the religious right.

Another one, John McCain, is gambling that the conservative base will capitulate in later primaries if McCain can win New Hampshire and Iowa and be anointed the front-runner by the press -- he would likely suffer a defeat in South Carolina, but if Mark Sanford's running, that won't hurt him much (I'm assuming the primary schedule doesn't change). If he can put together a coalition of moderates and fiscal conservatives, he has a shot at winning the nomination... but expect the support from the base to form around someone who can take him down. And McCain may get TV time and press kudos for brokering this deal... but when the primaries start to take shape in 18 months, it's more likely that people who remember this deal will be the ones who are angry about it.

For his fellow competitors for the moderate banner, Condi Rice and Rudy Guiliani, this issue has little impact, other than what happens to the competition. The same is true for GOP Governors like Sanford and Pawlenty (and Owens, if he's still in the running).

Finally, we have the remaining Senators -- Hagel and Allen (let's exclude Santorum until he wins re-election). Hagel scores a mild win because he refused to join the Gang of Fourteen, but his strong words against the deal came forth after the deal took place. Allen stepped forth as a leader in favor of the nuclear option, without bearing the burden of responsibility for its failure that Frist has. Allen was critical of compromise throughout, but stayed above the fray nicely. Conservatives who don't trust McCain (I don't) and the religious right may be taking a new look at Allen. If he wants the Majority Leader position when Frist leaves the Senate next year, it's his. But I'm relatively certain he wants a little more than that.