Monday, April 19, 2010

The Sun Ain't Shining For Charlie

It appears that Florida Governor Charlie Crist, who has been trailing badly in the GOP primary for U.S. Senate against Marco Rubio, is ready to jump ship and run as an Independant candidate for Senate.  Crist did spend the winter and spring insisting that he would never take such a step, but as he's fallen further behind Rubio, he's probably been trying to find some lifeline for a political future for himself, and may think this is the only option.  And it's not as if he coul;d have admitted that he would consider an Independant run -- that would have killed him in the primary even sooner.

The problem for Crist is that I'm not sure he could do anything at this point to win.  He's be losing all of his senior staffers, but that might help, since his campaign's been a colossal failure.  The question is who replaces them -- Democrats have their own candidate already, and I don't think Crist's personal loyalists could put together an Independant bid of their own that can run a get-out-the-vote operation that could actually win.  The most potent independant voting bloc this cycle will probably be anti-spending Tea Party sympathizers, and Rubio's popularity among the Tea Party set (and Crist's willingness to be supportive of Obama's stuimulus) leave Crist without any base among that bloc.  Practically speaking, Crist could run as a spolier, but he can't really win.  Maybe he believes he can, but I think we're more likely to see a 25 degree day in July in Miami than a Crist win.

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