The Cup of Coffee Test

The L.A. Times printed this story a couple days ago, which was surprising since the paper usually does its best to emulate the left-wing dishrag. But this time, the paper put forth a tale about Bush's campaigning in Ohio, and his discussion with 10 steelworkers aboard his campaign bus, in an unusually personal campaign effort...

As President Bush's campaign bus barreled down Interstate 77 toward this Rust Belt city on a recent Saturday morning, an unusual focus group with 10 local steelworkers convened inside the vehicle. Conducting the session was Bush himself.

Even in an election year, Bush's direct encounters with the public have been infrequent, fleeting and almost always choreographed. In the free-flowing give-and-take aboard his private bus, however, the president got a polite but candid earful about the uneasy feeling many such workers have about the economy.

...The Ohio workers he met with — employed by Timken Co., an old-line manufacturer of ball bearings and other steel products — live under the threat of plant closings. Details of their free-flowing session of July 31 were provided by seven of the 10 participants in interviews, and generally confirmed by aides from the White House and the president's campaign.

The group included Democrats and Republicans, white-collar workers and union members. The participants all cited Bush's personal charm, and his ability to put them at ease and encourage candor.

There wasn't room for everyone to sit, for example, so a few had to stand. Bush offered his recliner to Betsy Burns, a products inspector. Taken aback, she demurred. "This is an executive order. Sit down!" the president barked. Amid much laughter, Burns saluted and settled into the president's cushy chair while he remained standing throughout the session.

"That really broke the ice," said Jeff Clark, director of advanced product technology.

Timken has been in the news in this campaign because Bush visited one of its facilities here in 2003 and said his tax cuts would create jobs. But this year, the company announced plans to close three Canton-area ball-bearing plants that employed 1,300 workers. Sen. John F. Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, has pointed to Timken's problems as symptomatic of what he says are Bush's flawed economic policies.

Employment concerns were definitely on the minds of the workers Bush met with, and they said he shared their anxieties." The job security issue was the single item that was bad, from his perspective," said Susan Palomba, Timken's manager of healthcare benefits.

"Every time someone else chimed in [about job worries], others nodded their heads in agreement," added Sharon Jordan, a quality analyst at one of the targeted ball-bearing plants. In response to the participants' economic concerns, Palomba, Jordan and others said, Bush talked up the benefits of his tax cuts, as well as potential economic gains from his pending initiatives, such as a national energy plan. When Jordan, a mother of three, fretted about the cost of college, Bush responded, "Sometimes we have to do things we don't like to do," referring to taking out loans. He also brought up the role of community colleges as "one of the best things going," Jordan said.

Miller told the president that he would not be getting many votes from steelworkers. Miller, a Bush supporter, drove home his point by describing the grief he caught from co-workers when he wore a "Steelworkers for Bush" T-shirt to the plant."You're a brave soul," Bush replied, touching off a round of laughter.

At the end of the meeting, Bush turned to his reelection prospects. Although he expressed his belief that he would win on Nov. 2, Bush said he would be at peace with himself "if people elect to send me home."

"He said he wanted to be remembered as being effective and he was not worried about trying to be popular," said Chancelor Wyatt, a marketing manager at Timken.

John Grogg, a furnace operator who put on the dress blues of his Pennsylvania Air National Guard unit for the occasion, quoted the president as saying: "You know, if I should lose this reelection for president of the United States, I know that I've done as good a job as I can do. And God would say, 'Good servant, take a break.' "

... At one point during the Ohio session, Bush lauded the sacrifices of U.S. troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. "There were tears in just about everybody's eyes," recalled Martino.

At another point, Bush turned to Grogg, the Air National Guardsman, and asked, "Sergeant, have you been to Iraq yet?""Not yet, sir," Grogg replied."Do you want to go?" Bush asked."In a heartbeat," the reservist said."God bless you, son," the president told him.

"I'm only four years younger," Grogg said later. "But I kind of liked that, him calling me 'son.'"As they parted company, the men exchanged salutes.

The idea for the meeting came from the Bush campaign, and Timken's senior human resources officials assembled the group — a cross-section of the company, a spokesman said. Neither the campaign nor the company issued the seven men and three women any do's or don'ts, according to Martino and Jason Saragian, a Timken spokesman.

Bush is likely to continue meeting with voters, advisors said. Indeed, he held a similar session, lasting about 40 minutes, with 19 employees of Boeing Commercial Airplanes during a visit to the Seattle area late last week. The tenor of that meeting was more upbeat, perhaps because Boeing — rebounding from a slump in aircraft sales — recently announced plans to hire 3,000 more workers by year's end.

That was a long excerpt, but I think it's worth reading. Someone once told me that every Presidential election since Roosevelt's win over Hoover has gone to the candidate who strikes people as the sort of guy they'd rather meet for a cup of coffee. I'd disagree, since Nixon beat this twice, although I don't think I'd want either Nixon or McGovern over for dinner (Spiro Agnew would have been entertaining, though). But it's generally true. I doubt Dole had much of a chance against Clinton in 1996, but it would have been easier if he had broken out more of the self-deprecating Kansas wit prior to the election.

There are sophisticated elites from the Northeast who'd like to have John Kerry over for a cup of coffee -- but if they were honest, they'd admit that he's a boor. Plus, Kerry would probably ask for an espresso. Bush, on the other hand, has the ability to connect with people. This is not to say that Kerry's a bad guy because of this, but he's not an ideal candidate. He doesn't connect with people the way Bush does -- Bush would probably be facing a more significant challenge if John Edwards was his opponent. But even then, Edwards isn't in the same class as Bill Clinton, the master of fake sincerity. That's not really fair to Clinton, though, since most politicians are good at exuding fake sincerity.

But that's what's striking about Bush. The sincerity is real. People call him stupid, and he's not, but he'd have to be a political genius of Clintonian proportions to pull off faking sincerity at this level. I think that's why people generally trust him to do what he says he will do. And I also think that's why he will end up winning, and winning big.