There's A New Thought

Iran has threatened to attack Isreal if the United States were to launch an attack on Iran. Let's examine this rationally -- this would effectively be the equivalent of responding to 9/11 by attacking Canada (not that I oppose attacking Canada -- taking over might give us a better shot in Olympic hockey). Tigerhawk has a good bit of analysis on this...

This is, of course, a completely illegal threat, unless of course the United States launches its attack with Israel's assistance, which is highly unlikely (but, scroll down this post for a reference to "listening centers" that Israel has established in Iraqi Kurdistan). If the world were at all principled, we would expect howls of outrage from the rule-of-law countries. It isn't, so we won't hear those howls, but there you have it. The moral equivalence fetishists will take refuge behind the excuse that Israel also has undeclared nuclear weapons, so it is hardly in a position to object.

Now for the counterintuitive part: perversely, this new threat from Iran is at one level comforting. Why? Because it amounts to recognition that Israel's existence -- however nettlesome and offensive it may be to the mullahs and their constituents -- is more valuable to Iran's national defense than Israel's lack of existence. That realization, which was by no means inevitable, is stabilizing because it means that Iran is unlikely to launch a first strike against Israel (other than through proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas).

You know, I wasn't expecting to find Mahmoud Adjem-I'm-an-idiot betting on Isreal's continued existence in Vegas. But the line of thought makes sense -- to the dictators who run the autocratic Muslim states, Isreal is a convenient enemy that keeps the people distracted from their own lack of freedom and material comfort. Holding Isreal hostage isn't likely to work for the Iranians. The Isrealis have absolutely no qualms about tearing Iran a new one if necessary, and telling the rest of the world to go screw themselves. Having a hostage who can bite your head off isn't exactly a credible threat.