Philadelphia Freedom

Voting is allegedly a mess in Philadelphia, even as it just begins.  Clearly, it's Andy Reid's fault.

Predictions

Stephen Green posted 7 different potential scenarios.  Is it a bad thing that I didn't pick a single one of them?

Here's my call: start Obama with 201, Romney with 191, as per RCP.  That leaves the following swing states, with electoral votes in parentheses:

Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)

There's an outside chance that Maine's second congressional district flips from blue to red as well, but we'll keep it simple for now.  Let's deal with each of the above.

Put Michigan in Obama's pile, and North Carolina in Romney's.  217-206, Obama.

Give Romney Florida, and Obama gets Nevada via Harry Reid's dirtydirtydirty turnout machine.    235-223, Romney.

Here's where it gets to be a combination of art and science.

The biggest debate out there has been about whether you can trust the state polls or not.  It's been discussed at length, and people can make a good case either way.  No links in here because I don't have time to go find them -- I may edit this later to include some.

I find it hard to believe that state pollsters would intentionally pick stupid ways to weight the electorate in an effort to get Obama re-elected, and that they are more likely to be doing so out of pure laziness by referencing the 2008 composition of the electorate.  Averaging these polls helps reduce any bias or failures of any single poll... of course, Nate Silver and others may be reinforcing the bias with their own weighting of the credibility of each poll.  But an average should still be useful, right?

At the same time... I find some if not most of the poll weighting in this cycle to be ridiculous.  A poll that puts the ratio of Dems to GOP at 2008 levels is suspect, and polls that put up a greater spread than 2008 should not be considered in making predictions.  RCP and others include them in their averages, but they are undecutting the value of the averages in their polls by doing so.  People can, with some justification, claim that Republicans are ignoring the polls at their peril and dismissing them because they don't like the numbers.  I think it's equally silly to consider polls with sampling issues like the ones that have been spotlighted as credible. 

Jay Cost has posited, with some good analysis, that the state polls seem to be settling into a bimodal distribution which makes the averages somewhat less useful; effectively, this means that the average is unlikely to be correct, in what Sean Trende classified as a "two guys enter, one guy leaves" scenario.  That still leaves Romney behind in state like Ohio in the polls, but a lot closer than the average or a lot further. Basically, Trende is saying Romney is actually down  about 4, or down about a point.

I'll posit a Raje's Rant Rule on polls that I think is borne out by historical data, save for 2008 and 2000.  Generally, the polls undercounted the GOP candidate's share of the vote, such that I feel comfortable taking any state in the RCP average that is within a point and putting it in Romney's column, and think anything that's within 1-2 points is a total toss-up. 2000 was offset by a huge Dem turnout effort and the October surprise of Bush's DUI arrest revelation, while 2008 was a wave election.  I don't think any of those apply here, even if the Dem turnout is solid, because I think the GOP turnout is going to be strong.  And I say this even as I hear that the lines in my local precinct are an hour long right now, in one of the more Democratic counties in northern Virginia.

But looking at that rule means the following:

Hand Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire to the GOP.  In the meantime, send Pennsylvania to Obama, by a bare margin produced by Philly's turnout operation.  Pennsylvania will finally go red again in 4 years, just not now.  This makes the electoral college count 261-243, Romney.  As an aside, if Virginia or Pennsylvania go the other way in an early call, the game is almost certainly over.

Three states remain: Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio.  Only the last two matter -- in my scenario, either candidate can win Iowa, but they each need one of the others (and in Obama's case, both).

Now it becomes faith-based on my part. 

I don't know if Romney has the horses to overcome the Dem turnout machine in Ohio, and I'm not sure whether Scott Walker's impressive turnout machine in Wisconsin can pull off a second straight win in a state with a solid blue Democratic registration advantage.  But two caveats on apply here -- Bush made Wisconsin close twice, and Romney's campaign operation is a lot closer to W's than it is to McCain's.  As for Ohio, the GOP candidate always runs a little bit ahead of the national average (even McCain did).  Obama's camp is making hay of an impressive turnout apparatus in Ohio.  But the GOP faithful are now revved up to vote for Mitt -- they weren't before, but they are now.

So my pick here -- give Mitt the sweep of Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio.  295-243.  That's probably overly optimistic, but I like being optimistic.  I can be a pessimist afterwards if the numbers don't work out.

Now, I'm going to go vote.  Two words: Go Romney.

Excellent

Wojr sends this along, and I feel duty-bound to post it. 



I recall that Monty Burns also endorsed Sideshow Bob for Mayor following his release from prison. And to be truthful, I'd probably vote for Bob before Obama, since I'm aching for that upper-class tax cut.

The Endorsement

Because everyone's really dying to see who I'm voting for -- I'm sure I can pull at least as many votes as the vagina video.

Seriously... here are the real reasons to vote, and vote for Mitt Romney.  I'll stick to five of them, to keep it simple.

1.  Competence/Experience.  Seriously, this should be a baseline qualification for any job, and leader of the Free World requires it.  Liberals spent 8 years complaining that W. couldn't put his pants on without help, and then they proceeded to foist Captain Zero on the country in 2008.  We are talking about a single-term U.S. Senator with a background in the state legislature that featured very little legislating, little private-sector experience, and no executive experience outside of running the Harvard Law Review.  His best argument to counter this point during the 2008 campaign was that he was running a terrific campaign.  As we can see from the last four years, campaigning is not governing.  Hell, in his first important decision, he picked Joe Biden as his VP.  I could have thrown a dart at a board featuring the names of all the House members and Senators in 2008, and stood a 2-in-3 chance of getting someone smarter and better equipped to lead the country, and we're talking about a group that includes 200+ people who voted to put Nancy Pelosi in the Speaker's chair.

By contrast, Romney has run state government, the Olympics, Bain Capital, and two Presidential campaigns.  Bain was a raging success.  So was the turnaround of the Olympics.  His single term in Massachusetts was far more successful than Obama's single term as President.  Obama did run a successful campaign for President in 2008, so he has that on Romney.  And that's it.  And I would argue that Romney's campaign this year is nearly as impressive than Obama's 2008 campaign, because the world's not busy kissing Mitt's ass, and most of his own party wanted someone else in the job, and he overcame those handicaps.

2. Ideology.  I'm a conservative, and Mitt is not severely conservative enough for me. 

But he's not a raging liberal ideologue pretending to be a moderate.  Obama is easily the most liberal President of my lifetime, and that's saying something in a world where I lived through Jimmy Carter.  The accelerated unrestrained growth of government and the lack of any care for what he is doing to our fiscal future is reckless, but the lack of regard for religious liberty and free speech is even more alarming, if that's possible. To claim he is a conservative, as some have done, is basically an attempt to whitewash his record and convince Americans that their personal affection for him is in part derived by the fact that he really isn't way out on the left-wing tree.  The only reason he hasn't gone completely off the deep end is that he needed to get re-elected.  If re-elected, as he told Vladimir Putin, he'll have more flexibility.

Thanks, but no thanks.

3.  Partisan rancor.  Perhaps this is a permanent fixture in Washington, and our society... but Obama has made little to no attempt to use the enormous reservoir of goodwill he built up in 2008 to bridge the partisan divide.  And please -- stop with the "they started it!" BS.  Obama didn't have the experience or ability to convince people on the other side to follow his lead, because he sucks as a leader (more on that in a moment).

Frankly, I don't give a shit about bi-partisanship, since plenty of bi-partisan legislation ends up being lousy crap.  But Obama promised people something different.  Romney is doing the same now, and I have no clue if he can actually deliver.  But he does have a track record of actually doing it.  Obama has none.

4.  Leadership.  On nearly every important issue, Obama has punted when it called for real leadership.  He punted the stimulus to Reid and Pelosi, producing a wasted trillion-dollar boondoggle.  He failed to find a single GOP vote for Obamacare, in a world where Senators like Collins and Snowe happily vote for "moderate" legislation.  He couldn't forge any compromise within his own party to produce anything on energy or immigration, and governs largely by executive order edict.  And don't even get me started on his inability to address the debt and deficit.  Total failure and abdication of leadership on that issue would represent an improvement -- Obama's ignorance of it has been borderline criminal. 

As for foreign policy, his conduct on Benghazi, his fake destined-to-fail surge in Afghanistan, his unwillingness to lift his voice (let alone a finger) during the Green Revolution, the lack of any results from his selling out allies like Poland for a "reset" with Russia, and his "leading from behind" in Libya (including the ignorance of the War Powers Act, even if its unconstitutional).. is there anything really admirable here?

Yes, he gave the order to kill bin Laden... and promptly watched his administration leak every detail of the operation imaginable, to help burnish his image.  Perhaps the reason Biden finds the call so gutsy is because it's out of character for O.

Romney?  He is, without a doubt, a leader.  From running Bain to running Massachusetts, he has been a definitive executive who's shown an ability to take charge and accomplish goals.  He made an out-of-the-box call on his VP pick in taking Paul Ryan, perhaps the most substantively smart elected guy in Washington.  And he's run a campaign that has been the equivalent of the tortoise in Aesop's fable.  Note that the tortoise won that race, against significant odds.

5.  The cult of personality.  I'm sick of President Celebrity -- I could handle it with Clinton only because it was accompanied with actual accomplishments, whether I liked him or not.  Obama is an empty vessel -- he's a big-budget Hollywood movie with a formulaic plot, no character development of any significance, and a lot of special effects that ultimately mean nothing.  He might as well hire George Lucas as his campaign manager.

And as we all know, sequels for such movies just rock. 

That's it for the endorsement.  And now, assuming I can stomach writing while watching the Eagles look like crap again, I may issue a prediction.  But no matter what, allow me to encourage all seven people reading this to go vote.  It's your civic duty, or so we're told.  It would be good if you placed an informed vote, but we're not requiring that.

Reasons to Re-Elect Barack Obama

1.                  Seriously, the economy has definitely turned around.  And it would have been much quicker if the stimulus had only been bigger.[1]

 

2.                  In the second term, we’ll try to implement popular reforms, like instituting something akin to The Hunger Games.

 

3.                  We promise to expand stem cell research in ways that allow us to reanimate Steve Jobs.[2]

 

4.                  We already won the Nobel Peace Prize for doing nothing.  This term, we’re gunning for a Heisman Trophy.Hesi

 

5.                  Fine, we shouldn’t just offer free contraception to women.  Men can have free condoms, too.  And religious organizations won’t have to pay for those either -- drug stores will pay for them instead, at no cost to anyone.[3]

 

6.                  Okay, it was a bad idea to try to make alternative forms of energy competitive by simply raising the price of gas.  In the second term, we’ll spend money that you won’t miss (taxpayer dollars from rich people) to make the alternative forms of energy cheaper.[4]

 

7.                  Our interviews on The Daily Show would be way cooler than anyone from the GOP, and that’s not just because Jon Stewart feels obligated to kiss our asses.[5]

 

8.                  We know Mark Zuckerberg.  Heck, we can get you a free Facebook page.[6]

 

9.                  Look, every other time Barack Obama has had a job, he’s immediately started looking for a new job or running for a higher office.  Doesn’t it say how dedicated to this job he is that he’s not already looking to do something else?[7]

 

10.              Ron Paul was a serious contender for the GOP nomination – how can you trust a party where that guy is a serious contender for anything?[8]

 

11.              President Obama’s first important appointment decision was selecting Biden.  You can argue that all of his appointments since then have demonstrated a serious improvement.[9]

 

12.              Look at everything President Obama has overcome – a lack of experience, slavish devotion to liberal ideology, the arrogant belief that he knows better than you how to run your life, Democratic Congressional leaders like Pelosi and Reid, a Cabinet filled with people who couldn’t plan a successful middle school dance, etc.  I mean, it’s a wonder the country’s not in worse shape, right?

 

13.              You have to remember, we couldn’t implement our full Socialist vision until after re-election, especially after the midterm shellacking.  Once we get the full Socialist utopia in place, it’s bound to work, just like it says on paper.

 

14.              We had one really cool idea – we invited the 1985 Bears to the White House for their long-overdue visit!  How can anyone oppose the guys who did the Super Bowl Shuffle finally getting their moment in the White House spotlight?

 

15.              If re-elected, we will go back and make the creators of Lost  film a real conclusion that isn’t completely crappy dreck that leaves tons of questions unanswered.[10]

 

16.              We need to give Eric Holder time to implement our pro-Second Amendment policies.  Yes, we said pro-Second Amendment.  What people don’t realize about Operation Fast & Furious is that we were trying to promote gun ownership by people all around the world.  First term, Mexico.  Next up, Canada![11]

 

17.              Just a reminder – bin Laden is dead.  No, we swear this is the first time we’re bringing it up.

 

18.              Remember how you were all concerned in 2008 that we would elect a gaffe-prone embarrassment to be Veep?  Well, we’ve proven it’s no big deal, haven’t we?

 

19.              We have the first Secretary of Education who played in the NBA All-Star Game’s Celebrity Game.  That’s an achievement that no other country can boast![12]

 

20.              Silly Rick Santorum thinks anyone who wants everyone to go to college is a snob.  Dude, those are just garden-variety snobs.  By contrast, this ticket offers Ivy-League educated, never-have-worked-a-real-day-in-the-private-sector, friends-with-60s-radicals, 40-years-at-DC-cocktail-party snobbery.  You deserve the best elitists we can offer, America!

 

21.              Think about all the diverse contacts Obama brought to the Oval Office.  He’s been friends with liberals in Hawaii, Cambridge, New York City, Chicago, and D.C.  That’s some serious life experience, folks!

 

22.              Steven Chu guarantees that if we invest in nine more solar energy projects, the tenth bankruptcy filing fee will be waived![13]

 

23.              Emerging industries need our support.  Without government investment, Apple, Amazon, and Google never would have gotten off the ground.[14]

 

24.              In the second term, we’ll spur the economy with repeated Barack appearances on television.  No, we’re not just talking about speeches – we’re talking guest appearances.  The ratings boosts will inspire more advertising and hence more hiring.  For example, the President’s already lined up to do an episode of How I Met Your Mother.[15]

 

25.              We need time to let our Iran strategy succeed.  By the time the second term is up, we’re sure Achmadinijad will accept that fruit basket and agree to call us back.

 

26.              Can you really trust the GOP to do anything right?  I mean, they lost an election to us last time.[16]

 

27.              There are still business leaders who haven’t bailed on us yet.  Granted, they’re all receiving taxpayer money, but by Chicago standards, we haven’t even started bribery discussions.

 

28.              We all know we would be winning this election in a cakewalk, if it weren’t for those darn Fox News kids and that stupid Mystery Machine.

 

29.              If we lose, Barack might need to move back to Chicago while Sasha and Malia stay behind with Michelle to finish the school year.  You don’t want to separate a family, do you?[17]

 

30.              Yes, we can!  Hope and change!  It’s Bush’s fault![18]

 

31.              Listen up, Tea Party – without us as inspiration, you wouldn’t even exist!  Vote for us, and imagine the crappy stuff you’ll get to run against in the 2014 Congressional elections![19]

 

32.              With businesses going belly-up left and right, we can’t afford to have another billion-dollar enterprise fail, so make sure our campaign succeeds!

 

33.              In order to make it seem like we know what we’re doing, we’ve agreed to hire the cast of The West Wing as actual staffers in the second term.[20]

 

34.              Second-termers get a special discount at the resorts on Martha’s Vineyard, and we all know that this administration is about saving money!

 

35.              We’re stealing a page from Donald Trump – we’ll be firing one federal worker every day until the unemployment rate drops below 5%.[21]

 

36.              We’re offering anyone who votes for us the chance to enter a raffle, where first prize will be having Tom Hanks narrate your audio Christmas card!

 

37.              If you don’t re-elect us, Biden might go back and run for Senate in Delaware again.  Do you really want to put Joe Biden in a position where he’s doing something important, like voting on legislation?[22]

 

38.              We’re now working on celebrity endorsements from every level of celebrity.  For example, Zac Efron’s dogwalker will be making a personal appearance with Jill Biden next week!

 

39.              We’re working on fixing the mess Bush created in Afghanistan.  By the end of our second term, the Taliban will be back in charge, and it’ll be like we never went in there.

 

40.              Look, guys, if we can figure out a way to make people advocate for a right to free contraception, we can figure out a way to get them to believe that there’s a right to free beer, too.[23]

 

41.              We would note that during Obama’s entire term, the Spice Girls have not made a comeback.  We think that counts for something.

 

42.              Unlike Bush, we’ve never sought Congressional authorization to go to war.  We don’t need stuff like that, because the anti-war left doesn’t give a crap about the law or all those principles as long we’re in office.[24]

 

43.              If you think our Supreme Court appointments were impressive before, just wait until we appoint Michelle next term.[25]

 

44.              In order to assist Steven Chu, we’ve hired some new experts at DOE.  Introducing: the nerds from The Big Bang Theory![26]

 

45.              There hasn’t been a single scandal involving a number of our appointees.  For example, the Postmaster General has done nothing wrong; the Postal Service just naturally loses money.

 

46.              We’ve got a foolproof plan to pay off the national debt – we’ll sell the U.S. Constitution to the Chinese in return for $20 trillion or so.  It’s not like we believe in it, and we all know the Chinese people need more freedom.[27]

 

47.              Come on, men.  You want to vote for us – women are more likely to be happy with Democrats in office, which means you can drink beer and watch football without being bothered.  And that’s what you really want, isn’t it?  Who cares about debt and all that other crap?

 

48.              Okay, we get it GOP – you want us out.  Let’s make it fair.  Just remember all of you show up to vote on Election Day, the first Tuesday in December.[28]

 

49.              All mortgages forgiven, the day after the election.  C’mon, John Boehner can’t stop us.

 

50.              Everyone keeps talking about how the private sector is the key to job creation and turning around the economy.  But if you don’t re-elect this ticker, both Obama and Biden will suddenly be in the private sector – imagine the damage they could do to the economy then![29]

 

51.              You may think we’re dangerously unqualified to be President and Vice-President, but we’re even more unqualified for jobs in the private sector![30]

---

[1] Author’s note: we think this is an actual argument being put forth by the Obama-Biden campaign, and we wanted to note it for the record as such, since it’s hard to distinguish its stupidity relative to the other ones we’re suggesting here.

[2] It’s no more ridiculous than our promises to expand solar energy.

[3] Author’s note: This is not identical to an actual argument, but it’s only slightly less absurd, so we wanted to identify it for readers as such. 

[4] What do you mean, we’re already doing that?  Wow, that Steven Chu guy is way ahead of the curve.  What a brilliant Cabinet pick, huh?

[5] And for the record, it’s not killing Stewart to pull his punches on Joe Biden.  Some jokes are too easy, and Stewart doesn’t feel right making fun of someone who’s intellectually incapable of defending himself.

[6] SHHHH!  Some people don’t know it’s free, dammit!

[7] And no, we haven’t started our campaign for U.N. Secretary General.  Okay, maybe a little bit.

[8] Who?  John Edwards?  You mean the guy who talks to dead people?  We don’t remember him being a Democratic contender for President.

[9] Please ignore Tim Geithner, like we do at every Cabinet meeting.

[10] What do you mean, we need a Constitutional justification?  Doesn’t that Commerce Clause justify everything?  In conjunction with the Necessary and Proper Clause?

[11] You have to admit, this is the best justification we’ve offered for Fast and Furious.

[12] And let’s face it – there’s no better metric by which to measure our country’s educational system.

[13] Offer only applies if bankruptcy occurs before end of second term.

[14] Note to campaign: make sure we revise Wikipedia pages for these entities to reflect our version of “reality.”

[15] It will be… wait for it… wait for it… legendary!

[16] Seriously, if you can lose to a ticket featuring Joe Biden, who can think you’re competent?

[17] And have you seen the Chicago public schools?  Seriously, you don’t want to do that to those kids.

[18] We just wanted to remind people of the three reasons they voted for us last time.

[19] Heck, Christine O’Donnell might win this time.

[20] And as a special bonus, Charlie Sheen has agreed to serve as the wacky janitor as a favor to his dad.  Winning!

[21] Don’t worry -- consistent with union rules, the workers will continue to receive their salaries in perpetuity.

[22] In case the Senate ends up in a 50/50 tie, please ignore this item.  Thank you.

[23] And we’re talking the good stuff – microbrews for everyone!

[24] If you don’t believe us, watch what happens when we announce our revenge invasion of Vietnam.

[25] There is absolutely no truth to the rumor that Barack’s doing this to get her to cut back on the vacations.

[26] What do you mean, they’re not real physicists?  We did this on Bill Clinton’s recommendation.  He even hired the hot blonde as his assistant so she wouldn’t be jobless... oh.

[27] Thanks for talking up the import of the document, Tea Party pals.  It really helped raise the price.

[28] You have no idea how many times that worked on Biden.

[29] We’re pretty sure that Biden can destroy the economy of Delaware simply by going home.

[30] Do you think anyone takes the words “community organizer” seriously when they see them on a resume?

It's Not Even Necessary To Mock This

The War on Women officially jumps the shark.



So a vote for Romney is a vote to screw... too easy.

Seriously, I know it's a joke. Sadly, so is the dumbass campaign theme about War on Women.

Even RGIII May Not Be Able To Save Obama

One more indicator comes up smiles for Romney -- the Redskins lost their last home game before the election.  when that happens, the incumbent party has lost the White House in 16 of the last 17 elections.

Of course, the incumbent party could argue that it's unfair to saddle them with the luck of team owned by Dan Snyder.

The Keystone Prize

Jay Cost has a great piece about why it's been so difficult for Republicans to flip my erstwhile home state of Pennsylvania back from blue to red.  The answer is simple: Philly has come up big for the Democrats time and time again.

The non-Philly portion of the state has slowly been trending red since 1988. Democrats hype their gains in the Philadelphia suburban counties, but often fail to mention how Republicans have more than made up ground in the exurban counties of York and Lancaster, as well as taken advantage of the collapse of the Democratic coalition in Western Pennsylvania, at least on the presidential level. In 1988 Michael Dukakis won five of the six counties that comprise metropolitan Pittsburgh; in 2008 Barack Obama won only one of them. 

So why hasn’t the rest of the state tipped toward the GOP, especially given how hard George W. Bush worked to flip the Keystone State in 2000 and 2004?
 

The answer: The Democrats have done a monumental job of mobilizing the vote in Philadelphia County. In 1988 Pennsylvania minus Philly was 0.5 percent more Republican than the country writ large. Twenty years later, in 2008, it was roughly 2.5 percent more Republican. But Philadelphia County went from being 23 percent more Democratic in 1988 to 30 percent more Democratic in 2008.
 

Not only have Democrats moved Philadelphia leftward, they have done an expert job of keeping turnout growing cycle after cycle. This is extremely impressive because, as a share of the state’s population, Philadelphia County has been in a slow but steady decline (from upwards of 18 percent in the 1970s to about 12 percent today). What’s more, the county is now just 45 percent white, and non-whites are less likely to vote than whites.
 

I cannot overstate this: The prowess of the Democratic operation in Philadelphia over the last decade alone is simply incredible. Even though the population has been flat since 2000, Barack Obama managed to net 130,000 more votes out of the county than Al Gore!

The population of the living in Philadelphia County is pretty flat, but I'll bet the dead have had insane levels of turnout in the last three election cycles. In any case, Cost notes that the opportunity for an upset in PA is real for Romney and the GOP, no matter what the spin from the Obama side. I

'd agree, for one simple reason -- the Romney team is nothing if not strategically smart. They're not doing this for a Hail Mary -- they're doing this because they're trying for more than just 270 electoral votes and a simple majority. By aiming for 300, they create multiple ways of getting to 270. That was probably a pipe dream 40 days ago. Now? We'll see. But no matter how good the Dems feel about the state polls and their claims about a superior ground game, I don't think the Romney team would trade places.

Reasons To Re-Elect Barack Obama

The latest in the on-going series of reasons to re-elect the President.  Or as Jimmy Carter refers to him, "The guy who makes me look competent."

 

1.                  If we lose, Barack won’t have access to the White House basketball court anymore.  You know how hard it is for him to find an open court in Chicago?

 

2.                  America re-elected the first white President.  If they don’t re-elect the first black President, it would have to be racism.[1]

 

3.                  Seven words: Stimulus Part Two – Free Tacos for Everyone.[2]

 

4.                  Remember, we’re the guys who ran on a promise of hope and change.  If we’re defeated, hope would be defeated, and that’s not right.[3]

 

5.                  We’ll follow you on Twitter if you vote for us.  And we’ll even get Anthony Weiner to follow you, too.[4]

 

6.                  Give us another term, and we swear the oceans will stop rising.  We’ll get the guys who are measuring unemployment to start measuring the ocean levels, too.

 

7.                  Remember when we said this was more like an 80’s movie?  Actually, we now think it’s more like a sitcom that’s starting to age, and needs a new character to freshen things up.  So, get ready for the adoption of the newest first kid… Justin Bieber Obama![5]

 

8.                  If you elect a Republican, then Bill Maher will have new material, and HBO will never cancel his gawdawful show.

 

9.                  We really don’t want to have to change our status on Facebook, let alone our job on our Linked In profile.  We don’t even remember the password to that thing.[6]

 

10.              If you don’t re-elect us, George Lucas will make another trilogy – and this time, Jar Jar will do a dance scene with the Ewoks.  Don’t make him do it.[7]

 

11.              We don’t want to have to hang out with the one-term Presidents at the Presidential Club.  Do you have any idea how boring small talk with Jimmy Carter is?[8]

 

12.              If you only read the New York Times and watch MSNBC, you’ll know that we haven’t had a single scandal, so we’re not lying when we say “Most Ethical Administration, EVER!”

 

13.              If you don’t re-elect us, Barack has to return to lecturing on Constitutional Law, and we’ve all come to understand that he knows even less about that topic than he does about being President.[9]

 

14.              We were planning a really kickass second-term farewell show in 2016, with a closing number where Barack sings “End of the Road” with Boyz To Men.  If we don’t win, you’ll never see it.

 

15.              If a Republican is in office, celebrities will start cursing at the President during awards shows again.  We don’t want our children to see people openly disrespecting the Office of the Presidency, do we?

 

16.              We’re not witches.  Seriously.[10]

17.              During our term, the NBA and NFL have both avoided lockouts, and Major League Baseball successfully got a labor deal extension.  Wait, what do you mean we can’t take credit for that?[11]

 

18.              Federal workers have had their pay frozen for the last couple years.  Do you really think it’s fair to fire us after not giving us a raise for two years?

19.              Obamacare?  Oh, we only signed that.  It was Congress that passed it, and we didn’t want to supercede the will of the people’s representatives.

 

20.              Stimulus?  Actually, that passed in 2009, and George W. Bush was President for the first 19 days of that year, so that’s his fault.[12]

 

21.              Remember those Marines who got dates with Mila Kunis and Justin Timberlake?  Well, they’ve agreed to go out with one pro-Obama voter each, so if you vote for us, you’ve got a shot![13]

22.              If you give us four more years, we’ll definitely solve that immigration problem, since the economy will suck so bad that no one will want to come here!

 

23.              You can’t elect the Republicans, unless you believe in drowning widows and orphans while laughing maniacally.  At least, that’s what Hollywood teaches us, and they never lie.[14]

 

24.              With Republicans in office, Hollywood will start making more crappy anti-war films.  We don’t need that.

 

25.              Just imagine any of the Republicans dancing at an Inaugural Ball.  Ugh.[15]

 

26.              We need at least four more years to get one of these green energy loans right.  One of these companies is bound to not go bankrupt if we just keep at it long enough.

 

27.              This one’s for you, guys – in a second term, we’d amend Obamacare so it covers the cost of Viagra![16]

 

28.              With a second term, we’ll appoint a bipartisan commission to study the debt problem, with a focus toward looking at tax policy and entitlements to try to figure out the best way to handle the issue.  Then, we’ll listen to their sober recommendations and give a speech with some platitudes about how we don’t agree with all of it, but we see the framework for a deal, and we’ll try to work with Congress to get a deal… before refusing to cooperate on a deal that anyone on the other side of the aisle would find acceptable.[17]

 

29.              Did we mention that we killed bin Laden?  Okay, just making sure you don’t forget that, in the midst of all this great substantive list of reasons.  I mean, it’s kind of hard to remember it, what with all the great stuff we’ve done.

 

30.              If you re-elect us, we’ll finally release Barack’s mysterious college thesis, which will prove that there’s nothing controversial there.  After all, it’s just the foundation for Obamanomics.

 

31.              Re-elect us, or Bill Ayres might stop by your neighborhood with his wife and some “presents” that are guaranteed to cause a bang.[18]

 

32.              It’s only 1,461 days more.  How bad could it get?[19]

 

33.              They say great art usually comes about due to great suffering.  If that is true, people will end up looking back on these years as a time of artistic renaissance.

 

34.              People keep saying we don’t have a solution to the debt problem, but we do.  We’ll just tell China and the rest of our creditors that we need to change the terms of our payments.  It’s worked exceptionally well in the mortgage industry, right?

 

35.              Remember, the goal Michelle articulated was to “Move!”  We didn’t say it would involve moving in the right direction.[20]

 

36.              Debt?  We’ll hire a magician to make the debt disappear!  Hey, your kids will love it![21]

 

37.              This time, we’ll stick to our promise regarding marijuana legalization.[22]  Seriously, you can trust us.  Try a brownie.

 

38.              Unlike our opponents, this ticket is viewed as so fantastic that no one even bothered to run against us in the primary.  How can you doubt the brilliance of the Democratic Party?

 

39.              Bin Laden.  Dead.  And we don’t like to brag or anything, but we were kind of part of the mission, since we watched it on TV.

 

40.              In our second term, we promise to export our job-killing policies to other nations, starting with China.  This will mean that those jobs will come back here![23]

 

41.              Do you understand how risky it was to pass something as unpopular as health care reform?  We want to reward risk-taking like that from politicians, don’t we?  It shows that we would be absolutely willing to do something unpopular, like take on entitlement reform.[24]

 

42.              Before Barack Obama, the Democratic Party nominated stiffs like Al Gore and John Kerry.  We don’t want to make the party think it’s a good idea to go back to nominating people like that, do we?[25]

 

43.              Michelle Obama is way smarter and cooler than any other First Lady candidate.  Heck, she can make Letterman laugh!  Can Ann Romney do that?[26]

 

44.              You don’t want to make Sasha and Malia cry, do you?

 

45.              We’re not saying that the Republican Party opposes equal rights for women, but we hear Mitt Romney’s first act in office would be to sign an executive order permitting men to club women and drag them back to their caves by their hair… while confiscating all of their birth control![27]

 

46.              Yes, we know the price of gas is high.  But thanks to Al Gore’s invention of the internet, you don’t have to drive anywhere anymore, do you?

 

47.              Our inaugural balls feature far better music than the GOP’s.

 

48.              How bad can the economy be. when people are handing us $35,000 just to eat dinner with Biden?[28]

 

49.              It’s our dream to be re-elected.  With all these people questioning whether the American dream still exists, crushing our dreams would be further evidence of the decline of America.

 

50.              Look, we approved the Keystone Pipeline – okay, it was just the part that we don’t actually need to approve while refusing to approve the part where they need our approval, but that’s just a little technicality that you should just forget about for now.[29]

---

[1] And you know, that guy (George Washington) wasn’t subject to a two-term limit.  So technically, barring repeal of the 22nd Amendment, the country would still be racist even if we were re-elected.

[2] But remember, no more than two per person, or Michelle will frown at you.

[3] Actually, we hear hope floats.

[4] We’ll have him follow you in real life, because having him follow you on Twitter is pretty creepy.

[5] We think he’s Canadian, but we have ways of fixing birth certificates.

[6] We had to change it because Bill Ayres kept hacking it.

[7] You think he would have promised to stop making them if we hadn’t given him a stimulus loan?  Hmmm?

[8] If he starts talking about rabbits, RUN.

[9] Law students are having a tough enough time with crushing debt and a bad job market.  We don’t need to be increasing their challenges.

[10] We know it didn’t work for Christine O’Donnell, but we’re desperate here.

[11] We’re kind of strapped on things we want to take credit for, so let us have that one, okay?  And ignore that little NHL lockout.  It's not like anyone watches hockey.

[12] Actually, we think Bush snuck into the White House and usurped power for a couple hours in 2010 and 2011, so all the crap legislation the last couple years is also all his fault.

[13] And it’s not true that Axelrod and Jarrett are rigging the competition so they win.  They’re rigging the competition so some dead person wins, so Timberlake and Kunis don’t have to pay off the debt.  After all, this administration does not believe in paying off debts, ever.

[14] Particularly about the maniacal laugh thing.  Man, is that creepy.

[15] Although Mitt Romney probably does a mean robot imitation.

[16] Not to mention those dietary supplements advertised by Smiling Bob.

[17] No, we didn’t do this already.  Last time, we gave multiple speeches.

[18] No, we don’t know him.  He just lives in our neighborhood, occasionally drove the girls to school, has yet to return Barack’s band saw, and is the executor to the family’s will.  Other than that, the Obamas barely know him at all.

[19] Especially when we’re making up the unemployment numbers and the press isn’t reporting anything bad.  Woo-hoo!

[20] And if Biden is involved in driving the car, you’re starting out with the presumption that he’s holding the map upside down, or doesn’t understand the GPS.  Seriously, Joe thinks the woman on the GPS is talking to him, and starts talking back about whatever is on his mind… which tends to be even more boring than you think it would be, if that’s possible.  If someone can help with that, we’d really appreciate it.

[21] And trust me, the kids will go.  Assuming the Obamacare mandate is upheld, we can force parents to buy tickets!

[22] For the record, we have never made any actual promise regarding marijuana legalization, but we will stick to the promise, whatever it is and whenever we make it.  Like we said, have a brownie.

[23] Just keep this promise quiet.  We don’t want anyone outside the U.S. to find out.

[24] Please note, we would never never never never never never never never never never cut any of those entitlements.

[25] We’re not throwing either one under the bus, we swear.  It’s not our fault they lack any charisma whatsoever.

[26] Probably yes, but we mean intentionally by telling a joke.

[27] And even worse, the GOP wouldn’t even  allow the EPA to enforce rules on the source of the wood being used for the clubs.  Savages.

[28] Keep in mind, that’s not a pleasant experience.  Joe’s still learning that flatulence jokes at the dinner table aren’t that funny.

[29] For the record, people are way too obsessed with these types of technicalities, like the existence of the Second Amendment and that pesky Constitution overall.