Not Liking It One Bit

Whne Jim Carville starts calling for Treasury Secretary Geithner's job, perhaps Dem strategists should listen.  And maybe there's a grain of truth people should recognize in this statement by Chris Lehane...

With Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, says Chris Lehane, a veteran of the Clinton White House, "people got what they were about. People knew what Reagan stood for, people knew what Clinton stood for. The big challenge for this particular president is, what is our party's theory of the case?"


Obama, Lehane says, "ran an aspirational campaign that was about him and the idea of him. But there wasn't a specific theory of where he was going to take the country. If you were a centrist, if you were a progressive, you projected that he was the kind of president you wanted."

Bingo -- that last point nailed it.

As far back as 2007, I told friends on both sides of the aisle that Obama would win the election easily if he won the primary, and that the Dems would be smart to nominate him if they wanted to win. By the time he got the nomination, I had an additional point -- that there was no way he could succeed as President. The coalition he assembled was too diverse, particulary when it came to ideology. Too many people looked at Barack Obama and saw what they wanted him to be politically, rather than what he was. Many of those folks now see what he is politically, and it's very different. And they don't like it.

Stream of Consciousness...

My first 20 post-election thoughts, in no particular order...

1.  Toomsday!  Woo-hoo!  Pennsylvania finally replaces the weaselly douchebag (Specter).  Specter is the one elected politician in America (non-wacko division) whom people on both the left and right hated (my wife and I differ greatly on politics, and both of us despise Specter).   Toomey's exactly the sort of guy the GOP needs in the Senate -- he was fiscally conservative back in the late 1990's talking about Social Security reform when no one had the balls to do it.

2.  Loved on the humility of the GOP winners, but they can still blow it.  The good news is that the best speeches came from the guys who really can drive the party in a new direction and are sincere about it -- Rand Paul, Ron Johnson, and especially Marco Rubio.  I'm resisting the urge to start printing Rubio 2016 bumper stickers.

3.  Angle's and O'Donnell's losses show that the GOP's Tea Party wave can only be stopped if their candidates are subpar (Mike Lee, Paul, Johnson, and Rubio won going away) and by quirks of local politics (Nevada and especially Alaska).  Even Toomey's victory is impressive in a state with a Dem registration edge of 1.2 million voters.  Real Lesson: Better candidate vetting might produce better results.  Spin from Angle/O'Donnell supporters: the mainstream media and the Dems are misogynist assholes when it comes to women Republican candidates.  There's some truth to the charge (Nikki Haly's margin in South Carolina was probably a little lower than it should have been), but that's not the reason either one lost.

4.  The Murkowski/Miller mess might be the best thing possible for the GOP.  If Miller loses, Sarah Palin takes a bit of a hit.  I'm agnostic on that issue, but the White House probably wants her in the race in 2012, when I think Obama might be beatable by someone else (then again, the whole GOP field at present makes me think we need to consider running a video clip of Ronald Reagan).  Last night's results will probably lead a lot of GOP moderates to start looking to coalesce around one candidate, while conservatives/Tea Partiers might give pause to supporting Sarah so ardently, because of #3. 

5.  Interesting question in alaska -- the margin will be close enough that absentees will need to be counted (which may narrow the margin, since Miller is former Army, and they'll need to interpret each write-in).  Could be headed for a long fight. 

6.  California is officially screwed.  I saw someone say this, but it bears repeating: this week's results make it more likely California needs a federal bailout in the near future because of whom they elected... and also make it less likely they'll get one because of whom the rest of the country elected.  And on top of that, an electorate that is stoned enough to re-elect Boxer and bring back Jerry Brown somehow decides not to legalize pot.

7.  Maryland and Massachusetts are both depressing results, because if the GOP can't get a Congressional seat in Massachusetts last night, they never will (and Scott Brown will probably lose re-elect in 2012), while Maryland re-elected a corrupt jackass as Governor by a wide margin during a GOP wave.  Don't get me started on Barney Frank's idiotic victory speech.

8.  My own Congress seat is headed for a recount, with the incumbent Dem in the lead by less than 1,000 votes out of about 205,000 cast.  My fondest hope still exists: the margin narrows and the GOP candidate wins by one vote, all because my wife couldn't neutralize my vote due to a work conference.

9.  Jon Runyan becomes the first former Eagle in Congress, representing Kevin.  Perhaps Donovan McNabb can join him, since he's apparently not good enough to run 2 minute drills anymore.

10.  F--- Nevada.  F--- Harry Reid.  Sorry.  They totally killed my buzz with that result.

11.  GOP +6 in the Senate is not good enough, but it shows Dem strategy of localizing elections and attacking candidates personally worked to some degree.  However, the GOP will probably lose Colorado and Washington combined by about 1% of the vote, which portends good things for 2012.  Keep in mind that of the 33 seats up this year, the GOP had to defend 18 or so; the Dems have to defend more seats in 2012.

12.  On the plus side of Harry Reid's victory, he's still a douche, and still on the national stage, hanging around Obama like a stale fart.

13.  The biggest trend no one discussed as much as they should have -- the Midwest save for Minnesota basically turned deep red.  Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania... with the exception of the Illinois Governor's race and three tight House races in Iowa where Dems surivived, the GOP basically executed a sweep.  In the states listed above, the GOP went a combined 11-1 in the Senate/Governor's races, stealing 5 Governor's seats previously held by Dems and 3 Senate seats held by Dems.

14.  Back to Rubio... he nearly won 50% in a three-way race, and probably carried Rick Scott across the finish line to a win in the Governor's race.  Wow.

15.  Nikki Haley wins in South Carolina, giving us two Governors of Indian-American descent.  I am officially a slacker.

16.  The Dems may end up seeing the control of the Senate as a curse, especially Obama.  He may have to turn to the center, because going left and blaming the GOP for being obstructionist will be difficult when he still controls the Senate.  But the Dems in the Senate will have to be more moderate, because guys like Ben Nelson, Mark Prior, and others face tough re-election battles in two years in states where the GOP is ascendent. 

17. But Obama doesn't want to turn to the center too much, because he may get a primary challenge from the left.  They're still ticked that there's no public option, we're still in Afghanistan, Gitmo's open, gays aren't in the military, no cap and trade, and now Obama may have to agree to extend all of the Bush tax cuts.  He's in a tough spot, although the GOP is probably incmpetent enough to help him out. 

18. Charlie Crist, biggest loser, followed by Pelosi, Obama, O'Donnell, Angle, Whitman, and Conway.  Speaking of Conway, I hope Rand Paul brings Aqua Buddha to the U.S. Senate floor.

19.  Right now, I'd expect next year to be a battle legislatively, after the parties agree to extend the tax cuts and make some symbolic spending cuts.  Obama's deficit commission will issue a report that will lead to a fight, and health care will be a mess as the GOP tries to defund Obamacare.  I look forward to the resulting government shutdown and drinking Scotch at 10 in the morning for a couple weeks.

20.  734 days until November 6, 2012.

Reasons I Don't Live In California

Is it really surprising that San Francisco's Board of Supervisors voted to ban toys in kids' Happy Meals?  We're talking about San Francisco -- we're lucky they still permit McDonalds to exist.

Please, Nancy, Stick Around As Our Punching Bag

Word has it that Nancy Pelosi wants to be House Minority Leader.  She has a surprising source of support.

For All Of Us Who Have No Life

Election chat begins.. now...

For the record, I think chatroll only allows ten people at a time, but this blog has never had ten people looking at it, so we should be all good.

Blogger Chat

Microlenders May Need The Next Bailout

Man, the foreclosure crisis is getting out of hand.  By the way, count me among those who would love to see a "glut of foreclosed and abandoned goats" in the Bay Area. 

What Annoying Song Is Stuck In My Head Today?

If I need to suffer with a song stuck in my head, why shouldn't you have to do the same? Sometimes they're good, most times they're bad... but no matter what, they make you suffer. So I like to share the suffering whenever it happens.

Again, the theme fits the week. And ABBA always qualifies as annoying, so much so that I'm pretty sure they can make people homicidal.



And just as a bonus for those who hate ABBA but appreciate the theme... here's Europe...



You're welcome.

And The Winner Is...

About a week ago, the Lord of Truth asked for some election prognostication from yours truly.  I think this is mostly so he can mock me for being wrong (let it be noted that I'm still catching flak for a missed question during a Greek Week quiz bowl event 15 years ago... appropriately so, I might add). 

Let's start with the caveat that other people do this for a living and do a better job of it.  I would start with Nate Silver over at the New York Times, not because I agree ideologically with Silver, but because his model was damn near perfect in 2008, he's not afraid to take counter-intuitive positions, and the analysis is fair even if it tilts to the left.  Plus, his site compiles a ton of good information that's helpful to analysis.  In particular, I recommend the Senate and Governor's race tables if you're into this stuff.

Silver also has a useful hour-by-hour guide to tracking the House races, which would be great for use in designing a drinking game.

A similarly detailed analysis (including race-by-race stuff for the House) from Patrick Ishmael is found here.  Obviously, he reaches different conclusions than Silver.  So does Jim Geraghty, whose prediction of a net gain of 70 seats for the GOP would go pretty far down the line to making me break out some celebratory Scotch tomorrow night.  Silver posits a pretty wide confidence interval on the House, and I don't blame him one bit. 

So what does this all mean?  It means that predictions are a game for suckers, and the only guys whom you should trust to make an accurate prediction would be the gys like Silver, Ishmael, and Geraghty, who devote real time and analysis to what they're doing.  And since they're still not sure, anyone else who can claim they have a good prediction for tomorrow is either lying or a fool.

On the other hand, one could just guess...

 

House:

Me trying to do a race-by-race analysis in the House would be pretty useless, like asking Andy Reid why he doesn't run the ball more.  Most of the forecasters seem to be settling around GOP +50-55 or something, but it keeps sliding up.  I'll go with GOP +59, but with a couple caveats:

1.  I pulled that number out of thin air.  Seriously.  I might revise the estimate tomorrow by having my three year old take a guess.

2.  My guess is that if the GOP outperforms to where its gains go above +59, it might be in the mid-70's somewhere before the Republican "wave" stops.  Likewise, if the GOP underperforms in the House and drops below +50, I think it's more likely to end up right around +40 than the mid-40's, which would lead to some serious conflict with a one-seat GOP House majority.  The Gallup generic ballot numbers are really important to House races, because House districts are gerrymandered to be safe for one party; once the other party gets a big lead in the generic ballot, that means the lead can counter the gerrymandering, particularly when one side is more enthused and if there are no races at the top of the ballot or would break the same way. 

3.  That number is a net number -- the GOP will lose about 4 seats (my guess is that they drop only two if the wave turns into the type of wave that almost killed Greg Brady during the surfing contest).

4.  I'm avoiding district-by district analysis, although I am joining all decent Americans in hoping Alan Grayson loses and loses big.  If the seat in my district flips from Dem (Connelly) to GOP (Fimian), then I may need to raise a few extra glasses in celebration, because that may be an indicator that the wave is going to be big.

Senate:

I'm going to focus only on races where the seats had any chance of flipping this cycle.  I'm following Silver's model and using percentages, but will go more in detail below:

LA: GOP Hold (Vitter wins); 100% likely

AZ: GOP Hold (McCain wins); 100% likely

OH: GOP Hold (Portman wins); 100% likely

ND: Switch from Dem to GOP (Hoevan wins); 100% likely

AK: Switch from Dem to GOP (Boozman wins); 100% likely

IN: Switch from Dem to GOP (Coats wins); 100% likely

DE: Dem Hold (Coons wins); 99% likely

MO: GOP Hold (Blunt wins); 99% likely

NH: GOP Hold (Ayotte wins); 95% likely

NC: GOP Hold (Burr wins); 95% likely

KY: GOP Hold (Paul wins); 95% likely

CT: Dem Hold (Blumenthal wins); 95% likely

WI: Switch from Dem to GOP (Johnson wins); 95% likely

FL: GOP Hold (Rubio wins); 95% likely

AK: GOP Hold (Miller/Murkowski wins); 90% likely

PA: Switch from Dem to GOP (Toomey wins); 90% likely

NV: Switch from Dem to GOP (Angle wins): 75% likely

CA: Dem hold (Boxer wins); 75% likely

IL: Switch from Dem to GOP (Kirk wins); 70% likely

CO: Switch from Dem to GOP (Buck wins): 60% likely

WV: Dem Hold (Manchin wins); 55% likely

WA: Dem seat: Toss-up

GOP +5 is pretty much guaranteed, and I feel pretty good about a +7, with +9 very much in play.  +10 might be asking too much (they would need everything to break as above, win Washington, and get a flip on either West Virginia or California), although that's what they need to swing control. 

Some personal thoughts on individual races:

Florida -- The Dems are so desperate to stop Marco Rubio that they've been trying to cut their own candidate off at the knees to get Dems to vote for Republican-turned-Independant Charlie Crist.  The reason?  Young Hispanic Republican conservative from a key state, with a great lifestory, spurred on by the Tea Party, and without the baggage of an Angle or O'Donnell or even Joe Miller in Alaska.  And they haven't figured out a way to stop him.  Joy.

Wisconsin: Pat Toomey was my favorite GOP candidate of this cycle because he's from PA, ran the Club for Growth, and had the balls to take on Specter back in 2004, but Ron Johnson is another Tea Party star.  Loved his ad where he noted that there were tons of lawyers in the Senate, but no manufacturers. 

Pennsylvania: This is one of the key early races -- if Toomey is comfortably ahead, then the wave in the House might be unstoppable.  If Sestak somehows beat him, the Dems might be able to stop the wave from hitting Nevada, Illinois, and Colorado.  But if Toomey wins, the GOP is pretty well set for at least a 7-seat pickup, and the Dem firewall is in West Virginia.

Nevada: Please, beat Harry Reid.  Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Nevada have me nervous because of the chance of voter fraud.  The dead are a big component of the electorate in each of those states.

Alaska: Please, beat Lisa Murkowski.  Write-in establishment candidates who got their job from their daddy and claim to be doing it "for the people" should be deported to Canada.

Illinois:  See my voter fraud point, and multiply because it's Obama's old seat and it's Illinois.  The dead not only vote there, they each vote multiple times. 

Colorado: If Ken Buck wins (and he should), the GOP probably gets to at least +8, and I'm expecting Washington's vote count to be so tight that we won't know the result Tuesday night.  Which means...

West Virginia:  If Manchin somehow loses, the GOP will win Colorado, Illinois, and Nevada, and will need only Washington or California for a majority. And even if they don't get either one... Joe Lieberman instantly becomes the most powerful man in the Senate (which would be split 50/50).

Delaware:  I think Christine O'Donnell has no shot.  It is a shame, because if this seat was in play, the GOP would have a really good shot at Senate control.  Plus, if she's really a witch, she could turn Democratic Senators into toads.

Connecticut: If this race is close or Blumenthal loses, the Dems are toast.  And we get to have WWE wrestlers probably working on McMahon's staff.  Win-win, America.

California:  I doubt Fiorina pulls this off, but she's still close enough that there's a real chance.  But California's so crazy that I'd discount the chances of an upset.

Governors

Pennsylvania will flip tp the GOP.  So will Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, and Ohio.  Minnesota will buck the Big Ten trend by flipping the other way, and so will California and Connecticut.  Tennessee will flip to GOP, New Hampshire to Dems, New Mexico to the Republicans. 

And Florida will be tight, but will stay GOP after a recount.  Hey, we need at least one, so why not in Florida?

Sanity Does Not Apparently Include The Ability To Read

This is my favorite video of the campaign season (hat tip: Hot Air).  The fact that it takes apart some of the true believers and stoners attending "The Rally to Restore Sanity" by playing on their own preconceived notions of what the other side is saying is somewhat ironic given Stewart's pitch for reasoned conversation. If you're going to have a conversation with someone, it helps to understand what they're saying rather than jumping to conclusions.

Oh, and by the way... if Obama's not a Keynesian, he almost has to be a Socialist. Glad we cleared that up.

How 'Bout Them Cowboys?

I think no matter what happens in tomorrow's election, all of America can come together to agree on one thing: the world is a better place when the Dallas Cowboys are 1-6.  Granted, it would be better still if they were 0-7, but a little charity to the poor poor Cowgirls might be warranted.

The Final Countdown

Mickey Kaus wins the non-existent contest for best monker for the election: Countdown to Demageddon.   I wish I'd thought of that. 

The Rubio-Estrada Link

Jay Nordlinger makes a point that strikes home regarding the man who will likely be Florida's next Senator...

The Democrats seem especially determined to beat Marco Rubio, the Republican Senate nominee down in Florida. They have to beat him now: otherwise he could be president. You sense that they sense that. I’m reminded of what they did to Miguel Estrada, in 2001. Estrada was the brilliant and inspiring young attorney whom George W. Bush nominated for the D.C. Court of Appeals. Many said that he could be the first Hispanic Supreme Court justice. Democrats had to kill him at the appeals level: for he would be more difficult to block at the higher level. And kill him they did. Schumer & Co. accomplished that. And it was one of the most sickening political displays of the last decade.

I don't know if Rubio will someday be President, but count me among the people who knew Miguel Estrada back in the late 1990's and fully expected the guy was a Supreme Court possibility. He's flat-out brilliant (and not just because he correctly and repeatedly mocked my choice in ties), but that wasn't enough to win confirmation to the D.C. Circuit, or even a vote on his nomination. Keep in mind, his nomination came about at the same time as John Roberts' nomination to the D.C. Circuit. If the Dems don't filibuster Estrada, he may have been Chief Justice right now. And if Republicans ever wanted to play the race card, here is a prime example -- much of the reason Democrats filibustered Estrada was because he's a conservative who's also Hispanic.

The good news -- even with every attempt to stop Rubio, they can't filibuster him. And it also looks like they can't beat him.

I Think I Finally Understand Those Not In Our Name Folks

Can the rest of America send Achmadinasshole a big middle finger via Twitter?  Because I'm guessing most of us don't want to be associated with the State Department sending the multi-time hostage taker and promoter of future Holocausts a happy birthday note. 

I'd like those poor hikers released, too, but I'm not willing to have our country look like a weak joke.  Seriously, it's like this Administration is trying to  out-Carter Carter.

What Annoying Song Is Stuck In My Head Today?

If I need to suffer with a song stuck in my head, why shouldn't you have to do the same? Sometimes they're good, most times they're bad... but no matter what, they make you suffer. So I like to share the suffering whenever it happens.
My wife was working on a presentation this weekend that featured this song, so of course it's stuck in my head.  But hey, the theme fits the week.



You're welcome.

Best Part Is, He Can Use The Costume Again Next Year

Just for the record, this is not my kid.  But I salute his creativity.

Guys, Put Down The Bong

Only in San Francisco would someone complain about Nancy Pelosi being appointed mayor because she's too accomodating to conservatives (hat tip: Instapundit).

Well, San Francisco and North Korea, but you get the idea.

To Quote Mr. Burns, I Suspect You Need More Practice Working Your Telephone Machine

Apparently, our news media is unable to figure out how to hang up their Iphones.  Let me raise a glass to Steve Jobs, for devising one more method by which idiot reporters reveal their bias.  Meanwhile, I'm guessing the news director at the station is going to be stuck answering some unpleasant questions.  Maybe NPR execs can give them some pointers on conducting firings.

The John Kerry Post of the Day

John Kerry is the perfect manifestation of what people in the Tea Party oppose.  No wonder he's lashing out...

Focusing on the energy proposal, which broke down in negotiations with the GOP over an emissions-trading program, the senator told the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce that "it's absurd. We've lost our minds. We're in a period of know-nothingism in the country, where truth and science and facts don't weigh in. It's all short-order, lowest common denominator, cheap-seat politics.

Anyone who's ever read this blog more than once (that would be about five people, maybe six if you count me) has a pretty good idea of my opinion regarding the Ketchup King. He's such a tool that he stands out among the tools that dominate the U.S. Senate. The mere fact that the only thing that stood between him and the U.S. Presidency was a hundred thousand or so votes in Ohio should make people reevaluate Karl Rove's strategic brilliance.

If people want to understand what drives the Tea Party, look at Kerry. He is the consummate elitist insider, a politico who lies at the drop of a hat, loves the perks of public office, seemingly never worked a productive day in the private sector, married into money (twice) yet denigrates others who have the nerve to dislike the death tax, and loves to extoll the virtues of soaking the rich for taxes while parking his yacht in another state to avoid taxes. Personality-wise, he's pretty much the stiff egotistical rich guy everyone at the party tries to avoid, and that's view of him on the occasions when he makes a good impression.

Is he smart? Probably, although I question the judgment of anyone who thought John Edwards was ready to be Vice President (if you're asking me if I'm questioning the intelligence of the Democratic Party, I do that every day). But it's not about whether he's smart of not -- it's about whether he can explain and sell his preffered policies. He's been unable to do so, so he's fallng back on noting but more platitues. He's so used to people acceding to his opinion because of who he is that he's not capable of fighting back against criticism of his positions with reasoned arguments.

The good news? More than ever, be grateful we did not elect this jackass.

Album Cover Nostalgia

A new recurring series inspired by the Lord of Truth. We all remember certain album covers fondly -- here's one more.

Hey, it's Halloween.  Who better than KISS for an album cover today?  The real tragedy is that I don't think anyone's made a horror movie where the killer dresses as a member of KISS.  When I finally make my Hollywood breakthrough, this will be the plot of my fourth or fifth movie.

That Bastard Jefferson Voted For Obamacare!

Give Reason some credit for digging up the truth about political discourse amongst our Founding Fathers.



You think that was bad, I can only imagine what the ads against Aaron Burr would have been like. Murderous, villianous, lying, weasely, subhuman, slimy... and those were his good attributes.

What Annoying Song Is Stuck In My Head Today?

If I need to suffer with a song stuck in my head, why shouldn't you have to do the same? Sometimes they're good, most times they're bad... but no matter what, they make you suffer. So I like to share the suffering whenever it happens.

Huey Lewis and the News are the first band I ever saw in concert.  Beyond the fact that their music in some ways perfectly encapsulates 1980's popular music (whether you think that's good or bad is probably dependant on who you are), their videos provide a similar window into the 1980's.  Yeah, they did the lazy, "Let's film the band in concert video" plenty of times, but the original stuff was actually campy fun.  Like this -- no one really remembers the song, but the video pops into my head every Halloween. So here we go...



You're welcome.